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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

But the latest field is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners declining and recent also-rans improving in unison. During an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still