A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
